USDA's Food Price Outlook, 2014-15
In 2014, ERS forecasts that food price inflation will return to a range closer to the historical norm; over the past 20 years, grocery store prices have risen by an average of 2.6 percent per year. The food-at-home CPI has increased more in the first 6 months of 2014 than it did in all of 2013; however, given its current trajectory, it is on track for normal annual inflation. Inflationary pressures are expected to be moderate, given the outlook for commodity prices, animal inventories, and ongoing export trends. Retailer margins, having contracted since the 2012 drought, may expand in 2014 if input prices rise, which should contribute to inflation. As a result, the food, food-at-home, and food-away-from-home CPIs are expected to increase 2.5 to 3.5 percent over 2013 levels.